I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison – 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison – Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis: “I will be watching for a crossover with the 4 and 9 MA along with a breakthrough of the daily as final confirmations to enter.”
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short LTCBTC from 0.00752 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434
Patterns: Broke through . Trigger day on Peter Brandt’s last day rule
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $4,068 | R: $4,257
BTCUSDSHORTS: Breaking through the line. Within a whisker of triggering my alert at 36,000
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.1271%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Made crossover with 9
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Still trending down with price above = neutral
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Trending down at $5,432
Overall trend: Long term is firmly . Medium is neutral. Once it flattens / trends up then short term trends will be .
Volume: All green (buying) is less than the major selling . Biggest spike was on Nov 20th and the bottom of that candle is at $4,343. Therefore there should be significant resistance as the market makers look to exit positions from 11/20.
FIB’s: (Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $4,056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909
analysis: Long legged kept me away from long that I was planning on.
Cloud: 1h cloud is fully . 4h cloud is thick and currently being tested for resistance.
TD’ Sequential: G2 briefly traded above G1. If you took that entry then TD rules would put the stop below the G1 or below the prior R9.
Visible Range: Testing high node from $4,000 – $4,600
Price action: 24h: +2.03%
Bands: MA at $4,847
Trendline: Would really like to see a throwback to the at ~$3,700 before bouncing (mainly because that would provide a low risk long entry)
Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) Was fully . Has starting to flatten out and is threatening to turn down. Current candle finding resistance from MA and recent death cross with the 9 indicates an exhausted bull trend to me.
Parabolic SAR: At $3,447 | As soon as we brokethrough the SAR we quickly pulled back. Wasn’t expecting that action.
RSI: 1h has bear div
Stochastic: Diverging in manner
Last Day Rule: Trigger day occurred on today’s candle when it traded above yesterday’s high ($4,343)
Summary: I was planning on entering a long today if / when the green 2 traded above the green 1 which is also when the daily SAR was violated. I wasn’t at my desk when that occurred and I didn’t have a stop order in place.
Both were fortunate for me because the price quickly retraced below resistance and formed a . Even though there was a cross with the 4 and 9 MA’s I decided to pass on a long entry due to the at resistance.
The 1h chart agrees with that outlook and makes a pullback in the next 24 hours look likely (see daily trend above).
If we do pull back to $3,600 – $3,750 and find support then we would be primed to create a / Bulkowski Big W pattern. That is my most likely outcome for the next month and I intend to position myself accordingly.
If we continue to rally from here then I am okay with missing out on this bounce and I will start making plans to sell the bounce. If we fall to $3,600 and do not find support then I will take a stop in the $3,450 area.
Published at Fri, 30 Nov 2018 02:24:39 +0000