Analysts, like Crypto Rand, fully expect for () to soon resistance level. However, one analyst going by “Wusten” recently argued that if follow their historical long-term trends, may remain trapped under $6,000 until late-2019 or even 2020.
In a recent Twitter post, Wusten noted that follows long-term (three or four year) cycles that see rally parabolically higher each time. According to his analysis, has recently exited the capitulation phase, which saw the chart print a “death cross” last April to fall to $3,150 by December, and has now entered the accumulation/consolidation phase.
If historical trends are followed, the recent golden cross, which saw the 50-day moving average cross above the 200-day moving average, will be a “fake out.” Wusten explains that will remain trapped under $6,400, which traded around for many months last year, until October. By October, the analyst expects for enter “spring” and for to see an actual breakout, marked by a bonafide golden cross. Wusten isn’t the first to claim that months of accumulation are in ’s future.
In a tweet posted after ’s surge past $5,000 on April 1st/2nd, Josh Rager, a popular trader, explained that in ’s previous cycle, it took “216 days for accumulation from the bottom to spring.” As of the time of his tweet, had only experienced 113 days of accumulation. And as such, Rager noted that for historical trends to be satisfied, could remain trapped within a tight range until July 19th, 2019.
Even a prominent fund, Adamant Capital, chimed in on the matter. As by World News, the fund, headed by Tuur Demeester and Michiel Lescrauwaet, wrote that considering a number of indicators, long-term trends, and underlying development, has likely entered its “accumulation phase.” They didn’t divulge when would exit this part of their life, but they noted that a final bottom has likely been established.
Where’s BTC Heading In The Short Run?
If is following historical precedent, what will do next? According to two prominent analysts, Brian “The Rational Investor” Beamish and the ill-titled Magic Poop Cannon, a move to re-test yearly lows could be possible.
As depicted below (chart courtesy of Beamish), ’s price action in 2017 was evidently a “blow off top” and 2018’s was “the hangover,” two macro trends seen in the previous bubble. If continues to follow its trend, 2019 will see rally tremendously, but not without another influx of capitulation first. Beamish suggests that a move to near December 2018’s levels will come in the coming months, potentially as soon as June.
And as Magic Poop Cannon remarked, ’s current price action, the 50-week exponential moving average, 50- and 200-day moving averages, Fibonacci retracement levels, and Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings are all looking eerily similar in structure to that seen in mid-July 2015. And thus he wrote that if tracks its historical trend, the golden cross will form (check), a range of $5,000 to $5,300 will hold until May 7th (check), and will collapse to $4,025 by the end of May.
Title Image Courtesy of Icons8 Team Via Unsplash
Published at Sun, 28 Apr 2019 23:04:51 +0000
![Bitcoin [btc] could soon see an imminent breakout due to recurring bear pennant pattern](https://ohiobitcoin.com/storage/2019/01/1-Hour.png "Bitcoin [btc] could soon see an imminent breakout due to recurring bear pennant pattern")