First lets look at Price
Scenario 1-Mirrors 2014-2015 crash where went somewhat mainstream (but still not too well known contrary to 2017 )to some degree.
-Price did 1168$ to 153$, a decrease of 87%
-Using the bit stamp price high of 19665, a decrease of 87% will be $2555
Scenario 2-Mirros the worst bubble of all time, 2011, where we did a -93.7% decrease
-Price did 31.83$ to 2.03$, a decrease of nearly -93.5%
-Thus, a -93.5% decrease from 19665 would be 1238$
Scenario 3-Retraces to last bubble high. This has happened in 2013 where ( if we ignore the wick,we made a high of 163$, and this was very close to the bottom of the last crash at 153$. If the wick is included then this analysis is not really useful
The wick went to 276$, much higher then the bottom of 153$
The 2014 crash though had a much smaller wick
-The wick went to about 1168$. The bodies of the candle were at 966$ (using the weekly time frame )
-So thus a bottom at 966-1168$ is possible
Scenario 3- Mega Bear Crash mirroring the performance of some of the dotcom stucks (-95 to -99% )
-We could reach a bigger correction then the previous bubbles mentioned since unlike other times, was truly mainstream in 2017.It was the talk of everywhere when it surged past 10K and almost hit 20k. Even celebrities were talking about , and some celebrities participated in advertising shitty icos which are now worthless after hitting the exchanges.
– The thing is, the world decided that blockchain technology/crypto was not worthy of being an asset to hold, so we started to crash. And the 2015-2017 bull run while there were substantial advances in the crypto technology, real life applications are still slim.
– price when it isnt really mainstream and used primarly for shady transactions and as a hedge against the global economy failing is 130-150$ . Not likely to go that low but it could happen given the unique circumstances of this bubble
-Market makers also might have a incentive to drive below 1K as it would be breaking a pyschological barrier and cause more panic selling. This is because below 1k, the next is 500-600$ area, so it would happen rapidly
TL:DR
Potential bottoms are all the way from 150$-2500$. I dont think the bottom has been hit yet btw.
Published at Sun, 14 Apr 2019 03:57:41 +0000
