I’ve seen calls for the price to go back to $1k. I hear lots of people say they’re definitely buying if/when price drops below $3k. Who knows who is right? Bears can’t be right forever, right? Right? This 2018 bear market has been brutal for bulls/noobs. Shouts out to all my fellow traders/HODLers in the trenches.
I decided to look at the very long-term chart of (3D & weekly intervals going back to the beginning). Really wish I had purchased the $2k worth of I planned on buying back in 2010. Decided to splurge on a vacation instead. #Hindsight…looking back shows that has had many crashes (duh, but damn H2-2011 was rough). I used the old bottoms to try and plot a curve of this long-term “support”. A bit arbitrary but most of the points driving the curve are set in stone. The leeway to adjust the ending arrow is very slight.
We appear to be near a bottom for two reasons –
1. Price has come back down to the (purple curve/arrow)…actually broke it just a bit and seems to be retracing back up.
2. Price has retraced to about the 78.6% Fib level….which has been significant historically
a. In 2011, price crashed below the 78.6% level to hit the , moved back up to the 61.8% Fib level and then retraced again to his 78.6% and the . This was the start of a 42x / 325-day bull-run.
b. In Dec 2013, a bear market set in and price retraced back to 78.6% and the support line by Aug 2015. This was the start of the great bull run of 2016/2017 where did 74x.
has generally done quite well after retracing back to the long-term (see below), so I’m turning for the near-term
Dec 2010: 3.3x in 64 days
2011: 22x in 70 days
Nov 2011: 1.9x in 50 days
May 2012: 42x in 325 days
Sep 2015: 74x in 847 days
We’re technically still in a down-turn with people expecting drops down to $2k-$3400. The next major support levels that I see are $2,160 and then $950 after that, although I hope that this support holds and we see about $9k by mid-2019. Stop-loss set at nearest support “dip” (i.e. $2,900) so about a 4.37x reward/risk ratio. Also, bitcoin’s price has historically moved up from 78.6% Fib level to 50% in <120 days so hoping to hit hit this target somewhere between March and June of 2019.
Published at Mon, 31 Dec 2018 16:09:17 +0000
