So the previous analysis has been quite perfect so far. As the general waves lately as well, it’s just so great we have our back again. Anyway, the big correction i mentioned a while back is still in play which means this whole move could be the start of another impulse wave down. For that to happen we have to stay below the 4100/4050, simple as that. In my previous analysis i quickly posted this chart a few minutes before that last squeeze up to 4040 because i knew i would probably be too late with writing this analysis before that last move up would happen. We have found immediate rejection already as well, suggesting that on the right is a valid on. It’s not a i normally like to be honest, but so far working out. For now the 3940ish level is a support and if this keeps holding as support there might be a chance i might have it wrong with this impulse wave down. Doesn’t mean i am completely off with everything, just needs a new game plan.
I have been saying that we should see a move down again towards the lows to test it once again. I gave a target 2 days ago of around 3700/3750 which we have reached perfectly already. I also kept saying, that the 3500/3600 won’t be an easy level to break since it is a solid so far. I think a higher low around 3600 is very important because i don’t think a retest of 3500 will hold. I also mentioned there is a chance the 3500 zone might become the new 6K level as well. There are just a lot of bears in the market and usually when that is the case, we need to shake them out and make them bulls again. But at the moment, the market is still in crash and panic mode, even though the past week or 2 things have calmed down a bit, it doesn’t mean it’s over already. Think the market is still too shaky, one very big sign is the fact that we never reached that 4600 level a week ago, which was a very big sign for me to be looking down again. All i am trying to say here is, do not get caught up in the emotions of the market or whatever other analysts (or me) are saying, just make sure you look at the facts and be objective.
I also posted a possible in the previous analysis, but i also said that they have been failing almost every time the last months. With the current breakout and the quick drop to the neckline, suggests the is more likely than this . A break of 3940/20 would confirm the is off the table. On the left we can see the yellow circles showing both of the Bart moves that happened after a was formed. I kept saying yesterday when we were hanging around the 3800, that another drop would bee too soon and i rather see some sideways action or a move towards the 3950.
To give you a small view of how i trade, my game plan was during the weekend and the targets around the 3700. When trading this AND it becomes a succes, you should put greed on the side and stick to the plan. Now what i am trying to say here is the following, even though i expected a move up, i simply just sit on the sidelines for that to see how things go first before entering again. Since we had a Bart move up, a much stronger rally up than i though would happen yesterday, means i simply wait a bit longer before taking another step. Now i would have the odds on my side again if i would be trading this. Also having a break of a half day, gives me the chance to clear my mind as well and start the day objective again. Over trading is one of the biggest mistakes a trader can make. Try to have a plan, make your trades inside that plan if things work out. If they don’t, step aside and wait for a new opportunity. As soon as things become (a) personal (fight), that is when traders start to blow up their accounts.
For the short term, if we continue to drop i see the 3850ish as a second support after the 3920/40. If that one breaks, the chances will increase a lot for a move towards the 3600. A break of 4100ish, will make me change my short term view.
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Previous analysis:
Published at Tue, 04 Dec 2018 16:13:05 +0000
