After watching the price action of the past few days I wanted to publish what I am watching, what I see. 🙂
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This is the general setup I am watching play out.
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Diving into the analysis;
After the failed attempt at a second higher high and seeing a fierce rejection at $4100 (the wick during the morning of January 8th.) there was a massive dump down to the $3500 level where we saw some rather crazy price action (PA) and shakeouts. Is this redistribution or a shakeout before the breakout? – My bias below!
If we look back in history at $3600 & $3500, they have acted as strong R/S levels. Which I have marked as upper and lower channels of prior R/S.
Down below, there is an untouched area of support at $3250, which I BELIEVE will be tested (but that is the average person’ bias, so keeping that one in the back pocket).
If we are able to test the range high once more, I would argue that $4500-$5000 is in play, however if we are unable to get above 3720 prior high. $3250 seems more probable.
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More data!
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Something noteworthy;
GAPS FILLED on the chart, there are two below.
GAPS (Almost) filled on the short, the BIG ONE!! NOTE!! – Once this fills, will the shorts stack? Opening as we go to test lows? o.O ?
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There was a moving average cross (MA50 x MA200) on the H4;
We saw a test of the 50, but not a break. Something to note!
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A break of the 21EM (One of four EMA’s I use on my chart; Forecast) but has not touched / crossed the 55EMA;
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There is honestly so much data I am analyzing at one point in time, trying to remain consistent with my , not overusing my tools & indicators. Keeping it simple… ‘ish…
Also, excuse the absence from Twitter & Discord as I begin to test myself against this market. Something that is hard to do when you are constantly bombarded by ideas from people you respect (Love you guys though! YOU’RE PART OF MY MOTIVATION!)
I find myself seeking information a lot of the time when I am ‘confused’ – wanting to go to the people I trust and respect for help.
That is no way to learn, to progress. The bias I develop for myself is mine, and mine alone. Such a good feeling!
SO! I have simply cut myself off from the social media stuff even though I find myself on Twitch conversing with some friends… Challenging their bias vs mine is always fun.
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Thanks for taking the time to read! I actually took some time on this one!
Let me know what you think! Cheers!
– J.L.
Published at Thu, 17 Jan 2019 21:04:27 +0000
