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bearish until proven otherwise/theory of the descending triangle

Bearish until proven otherwise/theory of the descending triangle

bearish until proven otherwise/theory of the descending triangle

Bearish until proven otherwise/theory of the descending triangle

What’s up everyone,

I hope the bear market hasn’t been too rough on you all. I’ve been using this time to do more research into bitcoin and build trading infrastructure for the future.

I wanted to write today that I am expecting more downside from this point, but I strongly believe we will bottom this year. Volatility has been decreasing in this range, and because of the trend, the break in volatility is likely to the downside.

I want to talk about my opinion of volatility . I’ve heard opinions from people I respect who say that supply/demand are totally different from support resistance, but I am more inclined to say they are about the same thing than to say they are completely unrelated.

Specifically, I want to talk about how I interpret the low volatility now. My main assumption is this: demand for a coin is based on price and not time for the medium term and that all the demand that will exist at that price exists at the start of the interval (medium term because fundamentals change slowly, and people’s real appreciation of them changing is even slower). What does this mean? Well, say the price is in the $3,000 range (*like now*) based on my models, I think it’s a good range to buy so I place orders in this range. Let’s say my orders represent all of the demand at the floor of the level.

If the price rises above the floor, it is due to other market participants buying. Now, if the volatility shrinks, what does that imply, it implies less people other than myself are buying and the sellers remain constant (in proportion to eachother) or it means there are equal buyers, but more sellers. Either way, the price fluctuates less because the demand can’t force the price to move upward (in this specific case to the market now – obviously in different patterns the scenario is different). So what happens?

Sooner or later, my orders which are at the floor of the range will be filled and thus price will break below it and volatility will therefore increase.

This idea more or less is the idea behind why descending triangles are bearish and why the reverse are bullish – at least, this is why I think they are. In my opinion, they are more indicative the higher the timeframe (a triangle on small tf won’t trade as easily as on htf ).

Hope this helps,

-YoungShkreli

Published at Fri, 01 Mar 2019 00:02:20 +0000

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Bulgaria Could Slash its National Debt Thanks to Seized BTC

Whilst early investors are rejoicing about the recent surge in the price of bitcoin, the increase is delighting elsewhere too. As part of a national anti-corruption operation in Bulgaria back in May, the government there seized 213,519 BTC from organised criminals. Today, these coins are worth $3.6 billion, or to put it another way, around one fifth of the entire country’s national debt. At the time they were seized, they were only worth $500 million.

The confiscations followed a widespread crackdown by the Southeast European Law Enforcement Centre (SELC). ZeroHedge report that it was in response to cases of customs fraud perpetrated by organised criminals. A large-scale search of over 100 properties led to 23 arrests. Of this number, five were Bulgarian customs officers. Computers, tablets, bank documents, and other communications equipment were also seized. The story was picked up by Russia Today. According to them, the SELC said:

The organized criminal group consisted of Bulgarian nationals with connections in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Greece, Romania, and Serbia.

Local police contend that the group had managed to infect customs’ computer systems with a virus. The goal was to falsify data about shipping containers. They would mark certain containers waiting to be exported as having already gone through the necessary checks prior to departure. Naturally, unchecked shipments could contain literally anything, and having such a compromised route for illicit goods is a very valuable asset to a criminal network. The SELC believe that the decision was made to use bitcoin as a way of storing profits because it’s more difficult to track and follow than traditional currencies.

What’s perhaps more interesting than the seizure itself is what the Bulgarian government plans on doing with the coins. For now, there has been no official announcement. Will they follow the US example of privately auctioning confiscated coin being as such a windfall could dramatically aid their economy. One Twitter user expressed the fear that’s sure to have crossed many minds:

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

The temptation to flood the market with the seized coins must be strong being as Bulgaria could immediately repay 18% of their national debt instantly. However, they could equally decide to take the riskier strategy of becoming a long-term hoarder of the cryptocurrency and potentially use it to back their own currency in the future. Just a thought, Bulgaria. We wouldn’t want you to do anything too hasty now.

 

Image: ShutterStock

 

The post Bulgaria Could Slash its National Debt Thanks to Seized BTC appeared first on NEWSBTC.

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