Why be , when there are no breakouts of downtrends at this point?
Personally I’m serious confused by the bullishness of the market lately, while we didn’t break any major downtrend on either or and we had a major selloff three weeks ago.
Also, I’m enjoying the typing on TradingView, so I’m going to do that more often in the future, as Twitter doesn’t have that much space to describe why I’m thinking what I’m thinking.
First of all, I’m short term on and crypto. After that we’re probably bottoming in April/May and done. The fun starts then, as we’re going sideways to accumulate. I’ve often tweeted that 2019 is the best year to accumulate and I’m quite sure you won’t regret it when you do it, despite everybody whose going to tell you that crypto is dead.
Let’s face what we see on here and why I’m still .
– The fear & greed index is back at very high levels. Last time we’ve had that level was 14 November (and on every other peak of the price in the past year).
– We have seen a major selloff 3 weeks ago, which caused a drop from $167 to $132 within a few hours. Many people stated that this is profit taking, but I doubt that. Profit taking would be an healthy move with normal retracement, not a total panic dropdown of a few hours where everybody is panic selling. Also, that weekly closed as a gravestone , which in general doesn’t make me on the market at all. Therefore, every upwards movement like an opportunity to short.
– Since the major selloff we’ve made a upwards with 0 . The vanished away. In upwards markets it’s normal to have a downwards correction before continuation upwards, so in downwards markets it’s also normal to have an upwards correction, which I’m generally calling the movements of the past few weeks.
If we get back to the major sell-off we can see some important things on that one there too.
– We’ve made a SFP there, as we denied a breakout upwards and barely made a newer high resulting in the . Typically not calling the pattern an .
– We’ve rejected the downtrend redline there, created since September and at this moment the first one to break down, before we’re getting towards the main downtrend line (black one). That rejection is a bad sign.
– We’ve also rejected the horizontal resistance around $167 as we couldn’t break upwards.
Concluding, that dropdown is a sign and given that we didn’t break a downtrend, we’re not out of the woods yet (personal opinion).
If we combine that with the latest movements on the longs and shorts, we see something interesting too.
The longs on on Bitfinex are at an all time high, while the shorts are swimming around the all time lows.
History: Beginning of December we had an all time high on shorts on resulting in a big breakout upwards and almost a flip within 2 weeks to squeeze all the shorts.
History part 2: Beginning of April 2018 we had a short squeeze in , while the shorts were at an all time high there too. This caused a rally of $2000 in a matter of days.
If we combine this all, then I’m not at all on and I’m short on this one. If we clearly break the $167 level and find support there, I’m getting , but there’s no point at this point.
Also, if we break this downwards (and then is dropping down too), we most likely lose the we’ve created since the ‘bottom’. If we lose that line, we’re definitely in a downwards move and could possibly hit $40-50 (as that’s a big block too).
Will update this one.
Published at Wed, 20 Mar 2019 17:05:46 +0000
