Pilot Episode: A Primer — Capitalism and Governments
Weekly Report on ONEROOT Project (2018.09.01–2018.09.07)
bitcoin has been moving inside a $100-sized range, bouncing off support at $6,360 and resistance at $6,460. Price recently made a sharp rally but hit a roadblock at the top of the range once more.
The 100 SMA appears to be attempting a bullish crossover from the 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the upside. In other words, support is more likely to hold than to break. In that case, another bounce to the top might be in the works.
Stochastic is starting to pull up without even reaching the oversold zone, indicating that buying pressure is returning. RSI, on the other hand, is still pointing down to reflect the presence of selling pressure that might be enough to take bitcoin to the bottom of its range. A breakout in either direction could spur a rally or a selloff that’s the same height as the rectangle.
The lack of follow-through on the sharp move earlier on led profit-taking to ensue, erasing most of bitcoin’s intraday gains. Traders continue to hold out for bigger catalysts and take it easy with uncertainties still in play.
One of these is the launch of bitcoin futures on ICE Bakkt, as traders worry that this might lead to similar price trends stemming from the CMB bitcoin futures launch last year. Apart from that, anxiety surrounding the prolonged SEC decision on bitcoin ETF applications is also keeping a lid on bitcoin gains.
Still, it’s worth noting that the CFTC has given the thumbs-up for the ICE for its futures, which suggests friendlier regulation. This could also turned out in favor of an approval from the SEC for bitcoin ETFs.
Apart from that, the institutional platform by Fidelity could also contribute strong volumes early next year, thereby leading to strong bitcoin price gains.
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bitcoin (BTC), Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)–Yesterday EWN on a development by JPMorgan analysts over their prediction of an inevitable U.S. recession lingering on the horizon. According to the report, JPMorgan is predicting a 60 percent chance of recession occurring by the year 2020, with that number climbing further to 80 percent in the next three years. While numerous economists have echoed the bank’s findings that a widespread market recession is likely to hit the states within the next several years, several analysts in the industry of cryptocurrency were quick to point out that such a catastrophe could prove to be beneficial for cryptocurrency.
On Oct. 24, the U.S. stock market took a decidedly bullish turn with widespread Wall Street selloff, leading to in Asian markets upon their opening bell. As more investors see the writing on the wall that is an overextended U.S. stock market, the dampening volatility of cryptocurrency is looking more and more like an advantageous investment. At the very least, cryptocurrency provides a global avenue for investment that could provide investor’s refuge as the traditional market ramps up in volatility and instability.
Look no further than the rise of as indication that investors may find interest in cryptocurrency and cryptocurrency alternatives. While bitcoin is hitting a near-low in price volatility following months of price depression, stablecoins are cropping up to fill the void of 2017’s ERC-20 backed ICO project. Rather than attempting to sell investors on the novelty of a coin or the price outlook for a technology that has yet to grow past infancy, stablecoins provide a pegged value for investors that offers some level of security relative to the general crypto market. While stablecoins lack to the full decentralization of a traditional cryptocurrency (having to peg their value to an extrinsic source), they also provide a more obvious pathway for use in day to day commerce, with the average adopter comfortable using the coins for actual transactions without the fear of the price swinging wildly over the course of a week or month.
However, the promise of a bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund could also provide a catalyst for the crypto markets, in particular as stocks inch their way towards what appears to be another U.S. recession. While the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has yet to finalize a ruling on bitcoin ETFs, many within and outside of the industry believe it is only a matter of time until investors are able to trade using the product.
Institutional investing, particularly in relation to the crypto markets, has become a buzzword that bulls like to point to as indication of a coming price boom. It remains to be seen just how Wall Street responds to the opportunity of investing in cryptocurrency through a more regulated portal–as opposed to the largely lawless landscape of the current crypto marketplace. The passage of a BTC ETF, in conjunction with slipping U.S. markets and uncertain stock investors, could be the type of fortuitous timing that would not only re-invigorate the valuation of cryptocurrency’s market cap after ten months of price slippage, but also drive substantial fintech interest into the field as a viable technology.
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