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Acid Test: Bitcoin Must Break $7,800 for Bull Reversal

Acid test: bitcoin must break $7,800 for bull reversal

Acid Test: Bitcoin Must Break $7,800 for Bull Reversal

bitcoin (BTC) continues to mount a recovery despite the recent bearish “death cross” chart event.

As of writing, bitcoin is changing hands at $7,400 on Bitfinex and the average price on leading exchanges, as represented by CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index, is seen at $7,380.

The cryptocurrency’s 15-percent rally from the 54-day low of $6,425 set on April 1 is encouraging and pretty much in line with the historical relative strength index (RSI) pattern.

That said, the bulls’ job is only half done, and bitcoin is still stuck in a falling channel. So, a clear break above $7,800 is now needed to confirm a bullish trend reversal and avert another sell-off.

Daily chart

Acid test: bitcoin must break $7,800 for bull reversal

A daily close (as per UTC) above the falling channel resistance would signal a short-term bullish trend reversal – i.e. the sell-off from the March 5 high of $11,700 has ended and would allow a test of supply around the bigger descending trendline sloping downwards from the Dec. 17 high and Jan. 6 high.

Note, the falling channel resistance is lined up at $7,900 and is seen sloping downwards to $7,800 by tomorrow. A move above that level would lift the RSI above the descending trendline, thus bringing in more technical buyers into the market.

The 4-hour chart below shows scope for a rally to $7,800-$7,900 over the next 24-48 hours.

4-hour chart

Acid test: bitcoin must break $7,800 for bull reversal

The bullish RSI divergence followed by a break above the minor descending trendline indicate that bitcoin could rally by another 400 dollars or so. The RSI is also above 50.00 (in the bullish territory) and is trending.

However, if BTC repeatedly fails to take out the falling channel hurdle (seen in the daily chart) in the next couple of days, then the bears may flex their muscle. Moreover, that would mean the recent gains are nothing more than a corrective rally. The ensuing sell-off could take BTC down to $6,000 (November lows).

As a result, the falling channel resistance presents a sort of acid test for the bitcoin market.

In the larger scheme of things, a bullish reversal is seen only above $11,700 as shown by the long duration chart below.

Weekly chart

Acid test: bitcoin must break $7,800 for bull reversal

BTC has defended the 50-week moving average (MA), yet the outlook remains bearish as suggested by the descending 5-week MA and 10-week MA. Furthermore, the RSI is bearish. Only a move above $11,700 (bearish outside-week candle high) would revive the bullish outlook and potentially yield rally to fresh record highs.

View

  • BTC could test the falling channel resistance in the next 24-48 hours (currently seen at $7,900, will be at $7,800 tomorrow).
  • A daily close above the channel resistance would signal short-term bull reversal and expose resistance lined up at $8,090 (5-week MA) and $9,177 (March 21 high).
  • Repeated failure to beat the channel hurdle could yield a re-test of $6,425 (April 1 low).

Disclaimer: This article is not intended to provide investment advice.

Dropper image via Shutterstock

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

Published at Tue, 03 Apr 2018 10:00:49 +0000

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Guest Post: Understanding the Limits and Potential of Blockchain Technology

Guest Post: Understanding the Limits and Potential of Blockchain Technology

The promise of blockchain technology is coming to the forefront and capturing the imaginations of investors, entrepreneurs and innovators alike. But what many people do not know is how perilous the blockchain journey ahead still is. We live in a world of smoke and mirrors; enterprise investors must do their due diligence in navigating these choppy waters — making the right investments in the right blockchain technologies to unlock that promised potential.

To make the correct investments, we need to adopt a framework to evaluate them. Having a framework also means having the necessary inputs. What follows in this article are some of these key inputs.

If you are considering making technology investments, think about the end state: your vision. How will this technology fit within your existing technology infrastructure? You need to put on your far- and short-sighted glasses: First, what will the near future (1–2 years) of the blockchain ecosystem look like? Second, how will this blockchain technology integrate with your existing infrastructure? Does it complement your technology investments thus far? Does it mitigate or add to any burdens in your existing technological landscape? All of these questions should inform your purchasing decision.

As an integration consultant and a blockchain architect, my role is to help clients determine what is in the realm of possibility for them and what is not. Questions surrounding scalability, integration points, data interoperability and security are not easy questions to answer, but they must be considered. Some potential investors will be blinded by the sheer potential (or hype) of the technology and will completely ignore these realities. As appealing as blockchain technology is, it’s not for everyone. Some enterprise investors are not at the maturity stage to adopt it yet, and this is not an easy pill to swallow.

Blockchain is a nascent technology and much work is still being done in the areas of interoperability (e.g., ISO/TC 307, Ripple ILP, Hyperledger Quilt, etc.). These are challenges to consider. It is important to understand that, in order to realize the full potential of blockchain technology, some elements of integration with your legacy system are probably still going to be necessary. Consider also how your private blockchain can be integrated with public blockchains — we live in a less-than-perfect world where there are multiple blockchains. Will the blockchain be on cloud or on-premise? These are questions you’ll need to answer; in fact, these very questions will also serve as inputs to your technology adoption framework.

Bigger Picture

As blockchain technology speeds toward standardization (via International Standard Organization, etc.) and interoperability (Interledger Protocols, Hyperledger Quilt, etc.), we also need to ask ourselves if having too many standards will stifle innovation and whether integration and interoperability are antithetical to the core tenet of blockchain technology, which is decentralization, for which I have yet to find an answer.

Finally, the benefits of interoperable and integrated blockchains are many: improved governance, interoperability, process automation, further cost savings and perhaps even cross-chain atomicity (a dream for now, at least). But we must not allow the benefits to blind us to the reality.

I wish to end this article on a hopeful note. Despite the many challenges when it comes to adopting blockchain technology, these challenges are not unique to the blockchain. Every new piece of technology goes through phases of uncertainty and exploration: this one, too, shall pass.


This is a guest post by Nathan Aw. Views expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Media or bitcoin Magazine.

The post Guest Post: Understanding the Limits and Potential of Blockchain Technology appeared first on Bitcoin Magazine.

Update: monetary policy is driving bitcoin

UPDATE: Monetary policy is driving Bitcoin

UPDATE: Monetary policy is driving bitcoin EN English (UK) EN English (IN) DE Deutsch FR Français ES Español IT Italiano PL Polski SV Svenska TR Türkçe RU Русский PT Português ID Bahasa Indonesia MS Bahasa […]