Hello everyone!
Lately I’ve been posting nothing but sentiment – I am extremely skeptical that we bottomed out at $3,120.
To remain objective as an analyst however, I’ve decided to post something with a much more narrative.
As an analyst, I couldn’t think of a much better way to post content than to compare our bear markets!
2015 shows some very eerie similarities to current price action!
At this time I would like you to point your attention to the chart.
If you notice, we had a severe capitulation fall back in 2015.
Once we arrived at bottom we were able to have a V bottom rally, then another subsequent rally soon after to re-test resistance.
The top of the secondary rally in 2015 was a near perfect of the first one, so it was a lower high. Exact same situation now in 2019.
Also, we had an , 5-3-5 retracement of the secondary rally in 2015. Same thing in 2019.
This retracement was followed by a HUGE rally, which was eventually able to finally produce a higher high indicating strength.
Currently, seems to be in a impulse structure.
At this point, in order to strengthen the notion that the bear may be dead, we need to beat our highest high so far at $4,236.
Ideally we would at least need a daily close above $4,070 to invalidate the hidden divergence that has been printing in the daily for the past week.
The target in my opinion for this current rally should be no less than $4,340 if we are to have a copy of the 2015 bear market.
So, if this runs true, we’re looking at a higher high followed by a very severe dump to re-test newly formed support.
This incoming dump should not break the current lowest low.
If we are able to retrace and at least hold support above our lowest low, I believe chances will be much higher that the bear, at least for now, is dead.
The ideal scenario is a higher high followed by another higher low above $3,330.
Most ideal FOMO situation is a higher high followed by a retracement that does not break $3,500.
Good luck 🙂
Published at Wed, 20 Feb 2019 22:04:00 +0000
